Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko-Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa-Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, there is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa-Naivasha region than for theMasoko-Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa-Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. This means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections

Sensitivity of East African savannah vegetation to historical moisture-balance variation

Fossil pollen records provide key insight into the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. However, tracing vegetation response to relatively modest historical climate fluctuations is often complicated by the overriding signature of anthropogenic landscape disturbance. Here we use high-resolution pollen data from a similar to 200-year lake-sediment record in open wooded savannah of Queen Elizabeth National Park (southwestern Uganda) to assess the sensitivity of the tropical lowland grassland-forest transition to historical, decade-scale moisture-balance fluctuations. Specifically we trace vegetation response to three episodes of higher average rainfall dated to the 1820s-1830s, ca. 1865-1890 and from 1962 to around 2000. Our pollen data indeed reveal a sequence of three wet periods, separated by two drier periods. During the inferred wetter episodes we find increases in the percent pollen abundance of trees and shrubs from moist semi-deciduous forest (Allophylus, Macaranga, Alchornea, Celtis), riparian forest (Phoenix reclinata) and wooded savannah (Acalypha, Rhus-type vulgaris, Combretaceae/Melastomataceae) as well as taxa common in the local rift-valley grasslands (Acacia, Ficus), together creating strong temporary reductions in Poaceae pollen (to 45-55% of the terrestrial pollen sum). During intervening dry periods, Poaceae pollen attained values of 65-75 %, and dryland herbs such as Commelina, Justicia-type odora and Chenopodiaceae expanded at the expense of Asteraceae, Solanum-type, Swertia usambarensis-type, and (modestly so) Urticaceae. Noting that the overall richness of arboreal taxa remained high but their combined abundance low, we conclude that the landscape surrounding Lake Chibwera has been an open wooded savannah throughout the past 200 years, with historical moisture-balance variation exerting modest effects on local tree cover (mostly the abundance of Acacia and Ficus) and the occurrence of damp soil areas promoting Phoenix reclinata. The strong apparent expansion of true forest trees during wet episodes can be explained partly by enhanced pollen input via a temporarily activated upland stream. Pollen from exotic trees and cultural indicators appears from the 1970s onwards, but their combined influence fails to mask the signature of natural vegetation dynamics in the pollen record

Plant water resource partitioning and isotopic fractionation during transpiration in a seasonally dry tropical climate

Lake Chala (3 degrees 19' S, 37 degrees 42' E) is a steep-sided crater lake situated in equatorial East Africa, a tropical semiarid area with a bimodal rainfall pattern. Plants in this region are exposed to a prolonged dry season, and we investigated if (1) these plants show spatial variability and temporal shifts in their water source use; (2) seasonal differences in the isotopic composition of precipitation are reflected in xylem water; and (3) plant family, growth form, leaf phenology, habitat and season influence the xylem-to-leaf water deuterium enrichment. In this study, the delta H-2 and delta O-18 of precipitation, lake water, groundwater, plant xylem water and plant leaf water were measured across different plant species, seasons and plant habitats in the vicinity of Lake Chala. We found that plants rely mostly on water from the "short" rains falling from October to December (northeastern monsoon), as these recharge the soil after the long dry season. This plant-available, static water pool is only slightly replenished by the "long" rains falling from February to May (southeastern monsoon), in agreement with the "two water worlds" hypothesis, according to which plants rely on a static water pool while a mobile water pool recharges the groundwater. Spatial variability in water resource use exists in the study region, with plants at the lakeshore relying on a water source admixed with lake water. Leaf phenology does not affect water resource use. According to our results, plant species and their associated leaf phenology are the primary factors influencing the enrichment in deuterium from xylem water to leaf water (epsilon(1/x)), with deciduous species giving the highest enrichment, while growth form and season have negligible effects. Our observations have important implications for the interpretation of delta(2)H( )of plant leaf wax n-alkanes (delta H-2(wax)) from paleohydrological records in tropical East Africa, given that the temporal variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation is not reflected in xylem water and that leaf water deuterium enrichment is a key factor in shaping delta H-2(wax center dot) The large interspecies variability in xylem-leaf enrichment (24 +/- 28 parts per thousand) is potentially troublesome, taking into account the likelihood of changes in species assemblage with climate shifts

Reconstructing East African monsoon variability from grain-size distributions : end-member modeling and source attribution of diatom-rich sediments from Lake Chala

Grain-size analysis and end-member modeling of the clastic fraction of the 25-kyr sediment sequence from Lake Chala, a meromictic crater lake on the lower east slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro, reveal crucial aspects of climate-driven environmental change in equatorial East Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum. The finely laminated sediments of Lake Chala contain only up to 40% of clastic components, the rest are mainly diatom frustules and amorphous organic matter. Measured grain-size distributions were split into six statistically meaningful end members, of which four could be linked to a distinct source and transport mechanism of clastic mineral input: fine aeolian dust from distal sources (EM1), fine catchment runoff (EM2), coarser aeolian dust from proximal sources (EM5) and coarse erosive material from the upper crater slopes (EM6). The two other end members (EM3 and EM4) represented frustules of the two most common diatom taxa in Lake Chala, Afrocymbella barkeri and Nitzschia fabiennejansseniana, which had (partly) survived sample pre-treatment. Temporal variation in normalized abundance of the two dust-derived end members are valuable proxies for past changes in monsoon circulation over equatorial East Africa. During Northern Hemisphere cold periods (e.g., Last Glacial Maximum and Younger Dryas) the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shifted southward, enhancing northeasterly monsoon winds in the Lake Chala area and increasing advection of fine dust from the dry Horn of Africa region. Simultaneously, more modest continental heating reduced the prevalence of small-scale atmospheric turbulence, and thus the occurrence of dust devils, resulting in reduced influx of coarse dust from drylands nearby. Conversely, abrupt intensification of the southeasterly monsoon at the onset of the Holocene is recorded by an abrupt increase in the amount of coarse dust delivered to Lake Chala. Temporal variation in the end members representing catchment run-off (EM2) and erosion (EM6) mainly reflect changes in lacustrine sedimentation dynamics associated with major lake-level fluctuation, as evidenced by other paleoenvironmental proxies. Overall this study shows that subdivision of the clastic fraction of lacustrine sediments into statistically robust grain-size end members can provide multiple independent and quantitative proxies which help constrain reconstructions of a region’s multi-faceted climate history

Book reviews

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43077/1/10933_2004_Article_BF00213050.pd

The beginning of time? Evidence for catastrophic drought in Baringo in the early nineteenth century

New developments in the collection of palaeo-data over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate and environmental history in eastern Africa. This article utilises instrumental and proxy evidence of historical lake-level fluctuations from Baringo and Bogoria, along with other Rift Valley lakes, to document the timing and magnitude of hydroclimate variability at decadal to century time scales since 1750. These data allow us to construct a record of past climate variation not only for the Baringo basin proper, but also across a sizable portion of central and northern Kenya. This record is then set alongside historical evidence, from oral histories gathered amongst the peoples of northern Kenya and the Rift Valley and from contemporary observations recorded by travellers through the region, to offer a reinterpretation of human activity and its relationship to environmental history in the nineteenth century. The results reveal strong evidence of a catastrophic drought in the early nineteenth century, the effects of which radically alters our historical understanding of the character of settlement, mobility and identity within the Baringo–Bogoria basin